详细信息
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3
FN
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PT
S
AU
O'Regan, SM Kelly, TC Korobeinikov, A O'Callaghan, MJA Pokrovskii, AV
AF
O'Regan, S. M. Kelly, T. C. Korobeinikov, A. O'Callaghan, M. J. A. Pokrovskii, A. V.
TI
Qualitative and numerical investigations of the impact of a novel pathogen on a seabird colony
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INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MULTI-RATE PROCESSES AND HYSTERESIS
LA
English
DT
Proceedings Paper
CT
International Workshop on Multi-Rate Processes and Hysteresis
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MAR 31-APR 05, 2008
CL
Cork, IRELAND
SP
SFI, KE, Drexel Univ, CNRS, IMS, Cork Inst Technol, UCC, Tyndall, Heineken, IAHS AISH, Univ Limerick
HO
Univ Coll Cork
DE
ID
INFECTIOUS-DISEASES; GLOBAL PROPERTIES; MOUTH EPIDEMIC; INFLUENZA; DYNAMICS; VIRUS; MODEL; FOOT; TRANSMISSION; SURVIVAL
AB
Understanding the dynamics of novel pathogens in dense populations is crucial to public and veterinary health as well as wildlife ecology. Seabirds live in crowded colonies numbering several thousands of individuals. The long-term dynamics of avian influenza H5N1 virus in a seabird colony with no existing herd immunity are investigated using sophisticated mathematical techniques. The key characteristics of seabird population biology and the H5N1 virus are incorporated into a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model. Using the theory of integral manifolds, the SEIR model is reduced to a simpler system of two differential equations depending on the infected and recovered populations only, termed the IR model. The results of numerical experiments indicate that the IR model and the SEIR model are in close agreement. Using Lyapunov's direct method, the equilibria of the SEIR and the IR models are proven to be globally asymptotically stable in the positive quadrant.
C1
1 [O'Regan, S. M.; O'Callaghan, M. J. A.; Pokrovskii, A. V.] Univ Coll Cork, Dept Appl Math, Cork, Ireland.
RP
O'Regan, SM, Univ Coll Cork, Dept Appl Math, Cork, Ireland.
EM
s.m.oregan@student.ucc.ie
CR
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34
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0
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IOP PUBLISHING LTD
PI
BRISTOL
PA
DIRAC HOUSE, TEMPLE BACK, BRISTOL BS1 6BE, ENGLAND
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1742-6588
J9
9 J PHYS CONF SER
JI
PD
PY
2008
VL
138
IS
BP
EP
DI
10.1088/1742-6596/138/1/012018
PG
15
SC
Physics, Multidisciplinary
GA
BQO15
UT
ISI:000281436300018
ED
Mortell, MP; OMalley, RE; Pokrovskii, A; Rachinskii, D; Sobolev, VA
SU
BN
SE
Journal of Physics Conference Series
CA
SI
AR
012018
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PN
BA