详细信息
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2
FN
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PT
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O'Regan, SM
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O'Regan, S. M.
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Impact of seasonality upon the dynamics of a novel pathogen in a seabird colony
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INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON MULTI-RATE PROCESSES AND HYSTERESIS
LA
English
DT
Proceedings Paper
CT
International Workshop on Multi-Rate Processes and Hysteresis
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MAR 31-APR 05, 2008
CL
Cork, IRELAND
SP
SFI, KE, Drexel Univ, CNRS, IMS, Cork Inst Technol, UCC, Tyndall, Heineken, IAHS AISH, Univ Limerick
HO
Univ Coll Cork
DE
ID
H5N1 AVIAN INFLUENZA; INFECTIOUS-DISEASES; GLOBAL PROPERTIES; ADULT SURVIVAL; EPIDEMICS; MODEL; COMPETITION; FOOD; SEIR
AB
A seasonally perturbed variant of the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model in epidemiology is considered in this paper. The effect of seasonality on an IR system of ordinary differential equations describing the dynamics of a novel pathogen, e.g., highly pathogenic avian influenza, in a seabird colony is investigated. The method of Lyapunov functions is used to determine the long-term behaviour of this system. Numerical simulations of the seasonally perturbed IR system indicate that the system exhibits complex dynamics as the amplitude of the seasonal perturbation term is increased. These findings suggest that seasonality may exert a considerable effect on the dynamics of epidemics in a seabird colony.
C1
1 Univ Coll Cork, Dept Appl Math, Cork, Ireland.
RP
O'Regan, SM, Univ Coll Cork, Dept Appl Math, Cork, Ireland.
EM
s.m.oregan@student.ucc.ie
CR
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NR
30
TC
0
PU
IOP PUBLISHING LTD
PI
BRISTOL
PA
DIRAC HOUSE, TEMPLE BACK, BRISTOL BS1 6BE, ENGLAND
SN
1742-6588
J9
9 J PHYS CONF SER
JI
PD
PY
2008
VL
138
IS
BP
EP
DI
10.1088/1742-6596/138/1/012017
PG
10
SC
Physics, Multidisciplinary
GA
BQO15
UT
ISI:000281436300017
ED
Mortell, MP; OMalley, RE; Pokrovskii, A; Rachinskii, D; Sobolev, VA
SU
BN
SE
Journal of Physics Conference Series
CA
SI
AR
012017
GP
PN
BA